С функциями year () и month ():
select
year(created_at) created_year,
month(created_at) created_month,
confirmed_at
from t
order by created_year, created_month, confirmed_at
или если вы хотите только часть YYYY-MM:
select DATE_FORMAT(created_at, "%Y-%m"), confirmed_at from t
order by year(created_at), month(created_at), confirmed_at
или:
select DATE_FORMAT(created_at, "%Y-%m") created, confirmed_at from t
order by created, confirmed_at
или:
select DATE_FORMAT(created_at, "%Y-%m") created, confirmed_at from t
order by EXTRACT(YEAR_MONTH FROM created_at), confirmed_at