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341: 705, 342: 796, 343: 1300, 344: 2061, 345: 1723, 346: 1490, 347: 1084, 348: 1113, 349: 735, 350: 825, 351: 1607, 352: 998, 353: 796, 354: 1020, 355: 1062, 356: 1345, 357: 661, 358: 660, 359: 1168, 360: 2567, 361: 1090, 362: 943, 363: 1068, 364: 1084, 365: 744, 366: 1488, 367: 1799, 368: 1495, 369: 1667, 370: 1502, 371: 2026, 372: 2519, 373: 1758, 374: 1280, 375: 1417, 376: 1624, 377: 2505, 378: 4017, 379: 2159, 380: 1811, 381: 3177, 382: 1401, 383: 1472, 384: 2824, 385: 3620, 386: 2914, 387: 3280, 388: 1346, 389: 1983, 390: 2816, 391: 1688, 392: 2623, 393: 1696, 394: 3269, 395: 2460, 396: 2750, 397: 3107, 398: 2704, 399: 4018, 400: 1267, 401: 3166, 402: 2545, 403: 2364, 404: 2543, 405: 2455, 406: 4592, 407: 3344, 408: 2117, 409: 1650, 410: 1485, 411: 1711, 412: 2032, 413: 4209, 414: 2958, 415: 1578, 416: 2336, 417: 2178, 418: 1538, 419: 1243, 420: 3055, 421: 1461, 422: 2204, 423: 1549, 424: 2165, 425: 2378, 426: 2302, 427: 4959, 428: 2098, 429: 3720, 430: 2600, 431: 1960, 432: 1809, 433: 2249, 434: 3443, 435: 4136, 436: 3995, 437: 3971, 438: 3638, 439: 3618, 440: 1965, 441: 4234, 442: 4466, 443: 1800, 444: 3112, 445: 3845, 446: 1829, 447: 2142, 448: 3678, 449: 2345, 450: 2341, 451: 2577, 452: 3043, 453: 2292, 454: 3665, 455: 2001, 456: 4137, 457: 2589, 458: 2891, 459: 4068, 460: 4476, 461: 1991, 462: 2503, 463: 4070, 464: 3028, 465: 2360, 466: 4522, 467: 3604, 468: 1828, 469: 5575, 470: 3126, 471: 2040, 472: 2423, 473: 2037, 474: 3521, 475: 2631, 476: 6056, 477: 3930, 478: 1976, 479: 4781, 480: 3594, 481: 3728, 482: 3081, 483: 3578, 484: 3661, 485: 5168, 486: 4970, 487: 5661, 488: 1909, 489: 3595, 490: 4857, 491: 4428, 492: 3438, 493: 5195, 494: 2705, 495: 5214, 496: 3698, 497: 4641, 498: 2668, 499: 5697, 500: 5343, 501: 3455, 502: 4285, 503: 3045, 504: 4246, 505: 7447, 506: 5278, 507: 5044, 508: 3152, 509: 4094, 510: 4439, 511: 6518, 512: 5619, 513: 5687, 514: 5881, 515: 6972, 516: 3180, 517: 2569, 518: 3769, 519: 6369, 520: 7647, 521: 6467, 522: 5384, 523: 5448, 524: 4072, 525: 5603, 526: 7134, 527: 5781, 528: 6482, 529: 3097, 530: 4521, 531: 5614, 532: 4019, 533: 5905, 534: 4993, 535: 6241, 536: 4025, 537: 4956, 538: 4568, 539: 7849, 540: 5183, 541: 7267, 542: 6525, 543: 8567, 544: 4406, 545: 7138, 546: 7716, 547: 7897, 548: 6124, 549: 9031, 550: 9882, 551: 8223, 552: 8084, 553: 7118, 554: 7512, 555: 7330, 556: 5230, 557: 9010, 558: 5061, 559: 3768, 560: 8035, 561: 9365, 562: 5510, 563: 9968, 564: 10214, 565: 5277, 566: 5582, 567: 7743, 568: 4839, 569: 6697, 570: 4830, 571: 5707, 572: 5337, 573: 4359, 574: 8244, 575: 6158, 576: 7791, 577: 4158, 578: 6553, 579: 5652, 580: 7704, 581: 7254, 582: 6902, 583: 10189, 584: 4496, 585: 9339, 586: 6260, 587: 5464, 588: 3512, 589: 5536, 590: 4418, 591: 3674, 592: 6667, 593: 6959, 594: 2898, 595: 2733, 596: 3395, 597: 3602, 598: 6680, 599: 5758, 600: 3332, 601: 3802, 602: 5524, 603: 2718, 604: 2893, 605: 4764, 606: 5732, 607: 3746, 608: 4310, 609: 3332, 610: 2367, 611: 4762, 612: 2391, 613: 4453, 614: 3727, 615: 3722, 616: 2707, 617: 5423, 618: 2059, 619: 3134, 620: 2983, 621: 1555, 622: 2544, 623: 4125, 624: 3496, 625: 1489, 626: 2426, 627: 1744, 628: 2015, 629: 1411, 630: 1741, 631: 4087, 632: 3784, 633: 2350, 634: 2032, 635: 2818, 636: 1310, 637: 2639, 638: 3260, 639: 1482, 640: 2637, 641: 2112, 642: 2423, 643: 1330, 644: 1664, 645: 1158, 646: 2284, 647: 2004, 648: 1416, 649: 2059, 650: 958, 651: 2055, 652: 1126, 653: 1728, 654: 2447, 655: 1261, 656: 1429, 657: 825, 658: 1774, 659: 2144, 660: 2406, 661: 1002, 662: 1903, 663: 2245, 664: 1738, 665: 1027, 666: 1468, 667: 1422, 668: 2128, 669: 2607, 670: 1631, 671: 1872, 672: 1650, 673: 1614, 674: 1769, 675: 913, 676: 1482, 677: 1450, 678: 1780, 679: 846, 680: 1144, 681: 1841, 682: 1115, 683: 1214, 684: 1195, 685: 1254, 686: 1346, 687: 2273, 688: 1235, 689: 854, 690: 1866, 691: 1026, 692: 1681, 693: 2853, 694: 2219, 695: 2283, 696: 1355, 697: 1512, 698: 1008, 699: 862, 700: 1383}}
Использование fbprophet Мне удалось получить прогноз, единственная проблема, с которой я столкнулся, это наличие учетной записи прогноза на конец периода.период с октября по январь / февраль
Результат:
При экспорте результатов в Таблицу я получаю следующий график: 
Как вы видите, периоды октябрь-февраль выглядят слишком прогнозируемыми.
Код:
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from fbprophet import Prophet
df['floor'] = 0
#holidays
christmas = pd.DataFrame({
'holiday': 'christmas',
'ds': pd.to_datetime(['2008-12-25', '2009-12-25', '2010-12-25',
'2011-12-25', '2012-12-25', '2013-12-25',
'2014-12-25', '2015-12-25', '2016-12-25',
'2017-12-25', '2018-12-25', '2019-12-25']),
'lower_window': -1,
'upper_window': 1,
})
holidays = christmas
m = Prophet(holidays=holidays,
seasonality_mode='multiplicative',
holidays_prior_scale=0.05
)
m.fit(df)
future = m.make_future_dataframe(periods=365)
future['floor'] = 0
forecast = m.predict(future)
fig = m.plot(forecast)
Любые идеи о том, что я делаюнеправильно и как я могу настроить модель для более точного учета этих периодов?